By Dennis Matanda, Ph.D.
Sitting at a plastic table under a thick leafy canopy, sequestered from the remorseless Kinshasa sunshine, the stunningly beautiful woman with two assistants in tow decided that my colleague and I would get Coca-Cola. She did this without coquettishness or taking her eyes off the African-tanned fabric her well-manicured hands were expertly molding. When the ice-cold bottled Americana came, Maimouna, the beauty, told us in unencumbered English that since we were visitors to her corner of the Democratic Republic of Congo, she was ‘in charge’ of making our stay as snug as possible.
We had experienced this same empathy and largesse since EgyptAir lost our luggage and came to Maimouna’s tailoring domain to resize the ‘new’ suits and shirts our hosts purchased for us earlier in the day. Thus, while Maimouna’s tailors did their thing, we spent the next hour or so putting our man-on-the-street interview skills to the test.
Maimouna dispassionately told us that a decades-old war in eastern Congo had transfigured her life. As a Lendu from Djugu, Ituri province, she had, at a significant cost, left her lucrative business behind, and moved her entire family to Kinshasa. Despite her initial apprehension, she had been pleasantly surprised that most Kinshasa-based Hema and Lendu did not bring their Ituri conflicts to the city. Instead, her Djugu-mates heaped blame for their internecine conflict on the legacy of colonialism and the militia groups armed by Rwanda and Uganda.
Unlike the United States, where it is faux pas to bring politics up at a first meeting, I asked Maimouna if she liked Nobel laureate, Dr. Dennis Mukwege for president, or whether she would pull the lever for Martin Fayulu. She wondered why we didn’t ask about Felix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, aka ‘Fatshi’, the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
She said she was uncomfortable removing Mukwege from his role as a gynecologist because ‘Congo needs all the doctors’ and Fayulu ‘embarrassed’ Congolese in America and Europe by complaining about things he can complain about right ‘here at home.’ Maimouna might vote for Fatshi because he had not been like Joseph Kabila, by postponing the December 20, 2023, elections. After all, violence was happening in Djugu and elsewhere in eastern Congo. Elections mattered greatly to her, almost as much as the Tshisekedi Administration’s fulfilled promises around universal education for her children. That is why she was among the first to register to vote when the Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI) launched the revision of the country’s electoral register in December 2022.
She enlisted in Operational Area 1 (A01) in Kinshasa, which was with nine other provinces of Equateur, Kongo Central, Kwilu, Kwango, Mai-ndombe, Mongala, North Ubangi, South Ubangi and Tshuapa (Operational Areas 2 (A02) and 3 (A03), respectively had nine and seven provinces each). Maimouna wanted her vote to count because memories of the COVID-19 lockdowns were still fresh, and she wanted to ensure that Tshisekedi and anyone else vying for the high office did everything they promised. Given her COVID experience, she wanted her candidate, Tshisekedi, to provide entrepreneurial programs for Congolese women and youth. She wanted universal healthcare and to see even more signs that the government supported the 300 hospitals in the 24 regions the president had promised.
Lack of Presence of Auxiliary Precautions
In Federalist No. 51, James Madison elaborated that proper checks and balances between departments were the best way to structure a government. He strongly advocated for a ‘dependence on the people’ and the ‘necessity of auxiliary precautions.’ But from Maimouna’s perspective, even if she had never read The Federalist Papers and other seminal texts of American politics, she instinctually knew that one of the biggest challenges in her country was that the Congolese people were not playing a large enough role in managing the Democratic Republic of Congo. She was full of praise of CENI for trying to ensure that more people participated in the democratic process and did not understand why the opposition leaders and leaders like Martin Fayulu had to go to the United States to fight for voting rights in her country.
Whereas Madison wrote about the necessity of auxiliary precautions about the United States in February 1788, he might as well have been cautioning the world of quandaries like those seen today in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the country is Africa’s the world’s largest producer of copper and cobalt, respectively, the supposed US$ 24 trillion worth of sizeable rare earth mineral deposits has yet to be converted into regulatory efficiency, rule of law, and open markets.
The latest data shows that American investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to fall alarmingly. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom, U.S. direct investment abroad (USDIA) into the country fell from US$ 102 million in 2000 to less than US$ 60 million in 2019. In 2021, because most American investors sold their large-scale mining operations to Chinese and other investors, USDIA was less than US$ 1 million when other investors infused over US$ 1.8 billion into the country.
On top of that, the great Congolese fanfare with which the Tshisekedi Administration was sworn into power in January 2019 quickly went the way of the crow.
By August of that year, former President Kabila’s influence still ran rampant throughout the country, with the then-prime minister Illunga Illunkamba announced a government where up to two-thirds of posts went to Kabila’s allies. Perhaps exacerbated by COVID, analysts reveal that with the rising and biting poverty and war in the east, Tshisekedi might be fighting for his political life against Fayulu, his erstwhile rival, Mukwege, and other politicians. Interestingly, there will always be many Congolese vying for the highest office in the land, and that is why former President Kabila was able to run a parallel government in Kinshasa until he was relegated to Lubumbashi in 2021. Invariably, no rose-colored glasses can cloud inferences that repression and impunity akin to the Kabila days were back during the Tshisekedi days.
The Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendante and the 2023 Election
Earlier during this election period, Joseph Kabila, who is now in the opposition, told all and sundry that the appointment of a CENI chair who hails from the same region as President Tshisekedi undermines the credibility of the next election. This is the same Kabila who directed that the 2016 elections be postponed because the number of voters was unclear. But lest we forget, this announcement came less than a fortnight after anti-Kabila protests in the capital city led to lost lives.
Between 2016 and today, it may be fair to assess CENI’s capacity to manage credible elections and the country’s capacity to deserve the ‘democratic’ component of its name. And after 2018, the time may have come to test the Democratic Republic of Congo’s electoral law and the Constitutional Court’s capacity to guarantee a free and fair election.
After all, although the electoral body controversially introduced electronic voting machines against the will of the opposition, postponed elections because it could not distribute sensitive materials in a timely fashion, and did not release timely disaggregated electoral results, the Carter Center affirmed that the CENI management of voting operations in 2018 was ‘technically satisfactory.’ As Madison would have it, we should assess CENI as a ‘subordinate distribution of power’ and especially a ‘check’ on electoral malfeasance.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), or CENI, was established by Art. 154 of the Congolese Constitution and enacted by Organic Law No. 10/013 on July 28, 2010. INEC/CENI was tasked with conducting the first democratic election in 2011. Since 1960, electoral processes in one of Africa’s largest nations are much more advanced than those in Africa’s Great Lakes Region. These advances have come for two reasons: In the first place, before 2006, most of the country’s seven presidential elections, eleven parliamentary ones, and five provincial polls were held without CENI. Equally, the polls for the highest office did not necessarily count because Mobutu Sese Seko was typically a sole candidate, with other parties not being allowed to appoint candidates for the highest office. On July 29, 1984, sole candidate Mobutu Sese Seko and his Popular Movement of the Revolution (MPR) won 99.16 percent of the 14.9 million votes while his percentage of the December 3, 1977, election was lower: 98.2 percent of 10.7 million votes.
However, since the Inter-Congolese Dialogue held in Sun City, South Africa, in 1999, and following the 2002 civil war that killed over 5 million people, the country has held three CENI-managed multiparty elections, with civic education driven mainly by the church given that Congo has 350 tribal languages and is over 80 percent Christian. In 2006, CENI oversaw elections where about 26 million people voted, where Etienne Tshisekedi’s UDPS party largely boycotted the election, and where the incumbent Joseph Kabila beat Jean Pierre Bemba. For the next election in 2011, the electoral body enrolled over 32 million Congolese voters and saw Etienne Tshisekedi receive 32 percent of the popular vote and be trounced by Kabila’s 49 percent.
In 2011, Maimouna had just turned 21. She had already been doing her family’s retail business in Djugu, but things had started turning dicey, so her father made her travel more and more to Kinshasa. There, she met her future husband and found a suitable home. And she was also drawn to Etienne Tshisekedi, his charisma, serious brow, great-Uncle looks, and headgear. Juxtaposed with the youthful Kabila, the contrast was night and day, and the time had come to give the reins of power to a man who had battled Mobutu Sese Seko without losing his head, literally and figuratively.
Maimouna had voted for Etienne, confident that the candidate would win the election. She had seen a younger Felix and had thought the soft-spoken gentleman was distinctly different from his firebrand father. Crestfallen that Etienne lost to Kabila in 2011, she had been shocked that CENI could not manage the elections in 2016 but was relieved that they were postponed and held in 2018.
Then, the Democratic Republic of Congo refused to accept international offers to help conduct elections, and CENI ensured that 40 million voters went to the polls. Congolese pulled the lever for Etienne’s son, Felix Tshisekedi Tshilombo, with Tshisekedi triumphing over Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary with 38 percent to his erstwhile rivals’ 34 + 24 percent, respectively.
The 2018 election is also crucial because the Democratic Republic of Congo became one of the few African countries with an election-led power transfer. But the other reason this mineral-rich-but-painfully-poor nation country stands shoulder-high over its neighborhood is because, unlike the electoral commissions in Nigeria, Uganda, or Zambia, CENI’s leadership—the Chairperson specifically—is not selected by the Executive, but by Congo’s religious leaders and civil society.
Once that appointment is in effect, the leadership is then endorsed or ratified by the Congolese National Assembly. The Carter Center suggests that ‘… bodies responsible for organizing elections shall be independent or neutral and shall have the confidence of all political actors.’
In this case, although the CENI chairperson was appointed by six denominations, including Muslims and Orthodox Christians, CENI failed to convince the Catholic Church (CENCO) and the Church of Christ that current President and Chair, Denis Kadima—an election expert with decades of experience—was the most viable candidate to achieve the sort of election the Democratic Republic of Congo needs to happen in 2023.
Interestingly, with over 72,000 polling stations, CENI ensures that all votes are counted immediately in front of witnesses from the political parties and civil society observers who must sign off the results as soon as the polls close.
During the 2018 elections, some of the Catholic Church’s 39,082 polling station observers noted some fraud and irregularities like some polling stations being installed in military camps and some private residences, observers not being allowed to witness vote counting, voting booths not being placed in a manner that guaranteed vote sacrosanctity, disappearance of ballots, and in some cases, the voting machines themselves. But if we are to take the number of Congolese that remained queued at poll-closing time and were still allowed to vote because voting did not start on time, this country needs to get as much credit for this collective process as possible. For the 2023 election, CENI expects approximately 49 million people to vote.
Invariably, there’s no denying that some things happening in the country just before the 2023 election are not deplorable. That Tshisekedi has not managed the war in the East, or even settled skirmishes, is as unconscionable as it is unacceptable for an administration on which the Congolese had placed their high hopes.
At the same time, one should understand that Tshisekedi’s people would want to garner another term in office. In 2021, Tshisekedi successfully ‘broke up’ with Kabila and ushered in a period of sustained economic growth, specifically in the copper and cobalt sector. His fiscal policy also improved considerably, allowing him to exponentially grow the country’s social safety net programs, including education programs. Tshisekedi also launched a Congo-wide infrastructure expansion project.
But from CENI’s perspective, it seems their external audit of May 15, 2023, is their north star. Following the Carter Center recommendations, the commission has adopted the Principles of the Management, Monitoring, and Observation of Elections (PEMMO) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Principles and Guidelines for Review the Legal Framework for Elections.
Different from 2018, CENI has allotted a substantial budget for communication and awareness and implemented a comprehensive information technology audit to avoid previous challenges. As is wont to happen in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the twenty-four presidential candidates CENI announced on October 7, 2023, shall be winnowed down to a more manageable number before election day on December 20, 2023.
While Martin Fayulu leverages his relationships in the United States to visit the White House, Felix Tshisekedi Tshilombo is denying that his government is killing, kidnapping, or imprisoning opposition figures. Opposition leaders decry potential electoral fraud, and the influential Catholic and Protestant churches continue to question the transparency of the electoral process itself.
While a successfully implemented election could mean that Fatshi shall have a full term to implement those things he promised himself in 2018 and before, it could also mean enthusiasm to resolve the issues with neighbors like Rwanda. Fatshi could also demand more benefits from the East African Community for the mineral-rich eastern Congo. One of his most significant accomplishments to date is resisting the urge to succumb to what my friend, Paul Nantulya of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, termed ‘tremendous pressure’ from China, other external partners, and his political opponents, to back down from demanding a more considerable share of resources and functional infrastructure in exchange for the riches from the country’s mining sector.
The President of the Democratic Republic of Congo could return to being the man who demanded African rights for women and men as Chairperson of the Africa Union. Then, his words were taken with the vigor and vitality they deserved. But in a new term–where he does not have to grapple with Kabila and other barriers–one can only imagine what he might do for himself.
On the other hand, if Martin Fayulu is as popular as he suggests, then the Democratic Republic of Congo shall have a new president in January 2024. With the friends Mr. Fayulu has curated in both the Lamuka Coalition and the West, there’s a chance that his nation will see a reversal of fortunes, whatever those may be. The Fayulu Platform, thus far, intends to hold CENI to count by demanding transparency.
Mr. Fayulu has said CENI is cooking up an ‘electoral farce.’ But he also acknowledges that the opposition’s pressure has resulted in the audit I mentioned earlier and that CENI’s Kadima shall publish results ‘polling station by polling station.’ Throughout all this, CENI remains at the helm of the country’s inflection point. As it continues to register and reassure people, it is evident that the CENI staff and management are under severe pressure- to perform a thankless job. As for Maimouna and her two assistants, all they can hope for is peace, more sunshine, and the capacity to afford Coca-Cola for guests who come to her world under a cool canopy.
Dennis Matanda is a professor of American Politics & International Business at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC. He also runs Morgenthau Stirling, Inc., a trade, and investment policy firm. Dr. Matanda has published extensively on the trade and investment between Africa and the United States and is an expert on American capital in Africa.
