By Musinguzi Blanshe/The Africa Report
Posted on December 18, 2023 14:48
The East African Community (EAC) has paid little attention to the presidential election on 20 December in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), one of the regional bloc’s newest members.
The election is not discussed in media or political circles, yet its outcome could arguably have deep implications for the relationship between DRC and its neighbours in the east.
It’s intriguing that contrary to the norm, the EAC is not sending an election observer mission to DRC.
Nearly 44 million Congolese will vote in a high stakes election pitting incumbent Felix Tshisekedi against 22 others, including leading opposition figures Moise Katumbi, Martin Fayulu and Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege.
We detail five key reasons why the election matters for the EAC.
1. To exit or stay EAC
DRC joined the intergovernmental body in March 2022, but less than two years later, conversations are rife over whether to stay or exit. When DRC joined the EAC, Tshisekedi said the country’s membership would help it economically as well as strengthen peace and security. The latter objective has been attempted with the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF), but seems to have failed.
Opposition politicians have seized the chance to criticise Tshisekedi for taking the country to the EAC. Fayulu, who was Tshisekedi’s foremost challenger in 2018 election and is still among the main competitors in the polls this time, previously said Tshisekedi had “sent” DRC into the EAC, yet the country was “not in the Eastern African part”, but rather in the “central part of Africa”.
Fayulu has also promised to withdraw DRC from the regional body if he wins the presidency in December 2023.
READ MORE DRC election: Five key questions about the December presidential poll
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Last month, DRC’s representatives to the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) – the regional bloc’s parliament – who were sent by the Tshisekedi administration, told their colleagues that Kinshasa would quit the EAC if Rwanda’s aggression against their country continues.
2. Trade
DRC is a key trading partner for the regional bloc’s member states. Whether through bilateral trade or private companies’ ventures, EAC member states are raking in money from the DRC.
For the EAC, DRC’s membership brought many advantages: vast natural resources, a market of 95 million people and a GDP of $50bn. Still largely poor, especially in the eastern regions, DRC has been a huge market for EAC.
In 2020, no EAC country had a trade deficit with DRC, except South Sudan, whose data isn’t available, according to UN trade figures as of 2019. EAC members exported goods worth $941m in 2019 while imports were worth just 5% of export value.
A study by the Economic Policy Research Centre, a think tank in Kampala, predicted that the bloc could earn an extra $240.7m in export volume – equivalent to a 28% increase due to DRC joining the regional bloc, with Rwanda and Uganda as the main beneficiaries. The East Africa Business Council estimated that the regional bloc’s inter-trade could grow by 11% due to DRC’s entry.
READ MORE Exclusive: Equity group CEO James Mwangi explains why DRC set to overtake Kenya
Kenyan banks have found a lucrative market in DRC. Kenya’s Equity Group, the proprietors of Equity Bank, expects that its DRC subsidiary, Equity Banque Commerciale du Congo, will overtake its Kenya subsidiary in profitability by the end of 2025.
3. Security
DRC is going to the polls when the EACRF has exited the country, creating a security vacuum that rebel groups could exploit.
The regional force did not perform to DRC’s expectations, but helped implement a ceasefire. Its departure means that M23 rebels are reoccupying areas they had handed to the EACRF.
Worse still, a Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) mission is yet to come in as a successor. Consequently, any violence triggered by a post-election dispute could spread quickly in the eastern part of the country. This could send thousands of refugees to neighbouring countries, especially Rwanda and Uganda.
As has been the case in previous elections, security is a key issue in this week’s poll. Opposition politicians have rapped Tshisekedi for failing to pacify eastern DRC.
READ MORE US suspends military aid to Rwanda over support for M23 rebels in DRC
Tshisekedi’s regional diplomacy has been premised on anticipated security dividends in the eastern part, but the calculus never turned out as expected.
4. Who becomes the president matters
For any country, the head of state is the nation’s chief diplomat. Tshisekedi is a classic example of how a president’s swing from one side to another can affect the relations between two countries. From the onset, he embraced Uganda and Rwanda with the view that cooperation would be the surest way to deal with insecurity in the east.
But he later turned against Rwanda over the M23 rebel group, ostensibly supported by Kigali. Diplomatic relations between the two countries hit a low point last year when the rebel group captured several territories and relations are yet to get better.
READ MORE DRC in EAC: Can Tshisekedi avoid getting caught in Kigali-Kampala tensions?
Once on a campaign trail early this month, Tshisekedi told his supporters in Bukavu town, near the DRC border with Rwanda that “[Kagame] wanted to behave like Adolf Hitler by having expansionist aims”.
Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo described Tshisekedi’s statement as “a loud and clear threat by the DRC president”. Will a new president rekindle the relations with Rwanda? Unlikely.
Many candidates speak unfavourably of the East African countries. Martin Fayulu has argued that besides Rwanda, other EAC member states, particularly Uganda and Burundi, also have a role in the instability in Congo. It is only Mukwege who has called for tolerance.
“Rwanda will remain our neighbour. We need greater transparency in our relations,” Mukwege told The Africa Report last month.
5. DRC is swift with responses…Kenya’s example
Mostly viewed with suspicion, it’s vital for EAC members not to be perceived as if they are interfering in DRC’s internal politics, especially at the time when elections are around the corner. Kenya offers an example.
A diplomatic row erupted between Kinshasa and Nairobi after exiled Congolese opposition politician Corneille Nangaa met with leader of M23 Bertrand Bisimwa to launch an anti-Tshisekedi political-military coalition to ‘save’ DRC. Their meeting was featured by Kenyan media.
The launch rattled DRC, prompting it to recall its ambassadors to Kenya. DRC’s interior minister Peter Kazadi also summoned Kenya’s ambassador to DRC to express Kinshasa’s disapproval of the Nairobi meeting.
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But Kenya continues to take DRC’s response lightly. Kenya’s prime cabinet secretary and foreign affairs cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi said his country is “an open and democratic state where freedom of the press is vouchsafed” and where “nationals and non-nationals may engage the Kenyan media without reference to the government”.
Consequently, the country goes to the polls with no ambassador in three EAC countries: Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania. The ambassador to Kenya was heading the Tanzanian embassy. He was also the country’s ambassador to EAC.
